Sunday, February 13, 2011

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That will not happen in France

There are people like that who are the joys of service flap.
Of those people who are struggling to ignite and have a tendency, often annoying to look for - and worse: finding ...- the little beast. The small detail. The flaw in all. And who deprive themselves rarely break the atmosphere by removing the elk a little too crazy-crazy.
I am one of those people.
I was always the guy who tells children that Santa Claus does not exist and that tells the lady's husband will never leave his wife for her. Say I do not know how to dream. This falls very much, I do not want to dream and I have nothing to sell.
Sometimes you'll want a lot for this. Rightly so: it also lives by making the dreams that we arrange the most and I do not pretend to be an exception to this rule, but say that I avoid taking what I know to be a dream for the good fat solid reality.

And now, the momentum of joy and enthusiasm, I see many people around me to make their dreams for reality.
What is happening in Egypt will not happen in France.
If you think that, if you hope to see the masses take to the streets, if you have visions of crowds chanting "Sarkozy liberates" for weeks and end the arrogant little man with his bitch wraps up in arm: forget. It will not happen. It will not happen. And in any case and in any case, not in the next two years. If Sarkozy emerges, it will not be through a spontaneous popular movement, it will be because he has been beaten in the context of bourgeois elections. Deal with it.
If he is beaten, of course, which is not played.

I also feel joy and admiration for these brave people who, out of boredom in front of unjust arbitrary, decided to do what is probably best: take themselves decisions and their political destiny in hand. Create policy, without waiting to be done for them or that they submit a program or slogans. And most importantly, finally win! Scare the despots tail between legs, to see all their sacrifices and including more painful not to have been made vain...
C'est par ailleurs d'autant plus jouissif que ça fait piquer une petite crise à Droitard, qui sans doute adore la démocratie, mais surtout quand le peuple ne s'en mêle pas ; quant aux plus réacophiles d'entre ces sots, goûter leur panique depuis quelques jours devant ces "africains" qui décident d'entrer dans l'Histoire en filant un grand coup de pied dans la porte vous a quelque chose de délicieux. sans le moindre doute.

Mais si vous attendez que ces vents de révolte traversent la Méditerranée - en y trouvant qui plus est la justification de vos prises de position politiques -, vous risquez d'attendre fort longtemps, je le crains...

Just because the situations experienced by the Egyptian and French peoples have absolutely nothing to do with each other.
course the French are suffering. Of course life is becoming harder. That work is devouring and social injustice is the basic commodity prices the only things that actually increase. And of course that anger, cold at the moment is in the minds ...
But that's not enough to make a revolution, this.
Egyptians are descended en masse and held up the win for one simple reason: they were absolutely hopeless. He had, in effect, nothing to lose, to consider the sacrifice of their own lives for some, as was evidenced with harrowing testimony of players of this splendid movement.

In France, there is not despair, there is a state of collective depression and this is not the same thing.
Despair, by closing all doors to other channels, making suitable passage to the act. Desperation makes them dangerous. Depression is a willingness to act for which there is no outlet and turns against the subject and enclosed in precisely the inability to take action, including one who could release him or at least relief.
In short: we have too much to lose yet so that what happens there can happen here.
What prevents it happens the same thing, this is not what we want, not what we took: that's what we have or what we hope to have .
A job. A car. A consumer credit. Recognition. Hope, even tenuous, in life you can have and want for their children. Stability. Security. The desire to be heard by government. And entertainment, too ...
These are the things of our daily newspapers that stand between revolutions and we pretty much more efficiently than the walls of riot police and army tanks. It is these things, some of the most symbolic indeed, like what their revolt is not limited to want to stuff yourself like Western contrary to the claims of the idiots that did not the Egyptians and they don ' expecting even more to them gives them.
No intermediary bodies. No political parties, no "social partners", no forces structured to channel energies. Autocratic rule and crushing a people that suffers and nothing, absolutely nothing in between. The confrontation could only be explosive, because the Egyptians knew, right from the start that the balance of power allowed no turning back.
Are we there?

I'm too cynical, too this and too that, and worse: I despair Billancourt? I think that especially hold out for "Billancourt" the possibility of an event may be known and not with "if" my aunt is my uncle one day, one day it could arrive here ...
is even more hopeless.
is promising something that is not at all certain to hold and I am always wary to bursts of enthusiasm that claimed to dispense with a dispassionate analysis on the pretext of a need Stakhanovite of forced optimism.
True, it is beautiful, this Arab movement. It is also true that we are there in this beautiful and terrible moment when everything is still suspended and we can say that anything is possible, anything can happen, and including the best ...

But it will not happen in France. Or not ... before 10? Or 20 years? Not before 2012 anyway, put you do that well in the skull and stop dreaming.
I know. You want me. We always want to Cassandras. You say yes but no, and arrive in comments moult protests like what we're not sure, you never know, you can not say that, you are too this and too that.
But tell yourself that on the merits, I would agree with you: I hope I am wrong. I sincerely wrong. I do not want it, of being contradicted by the facts ...
Except I will not base a political analysis on the projections of my desires that I will take for reality.

I know: I have a heart of ice.


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